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Marine Salmon Interactions Program

2008 NOAA Pink Salmon Forecast "Spot On" for Southeast Alaska

Auke Bay Laboratories' pink salmon forecast for the commercial harvest in Southeast Alaska (SEAK) proved highly accurate in 2008, correctly predicting record low returns to the region.

At the SEAK regional Purse Seine Task Force (PSTF) meeting in November 2007, researchers from ABL predicted a harvest of 16.1 million pink salmon for 2008. In the ensuing year, 15.9 million pink salmon were harvested in the region, 98% of the predicted forecast. Remarkably, this 2008 SEAK pink salmon harvest was the second lowest in the past 20 years.

Scientists from ABL have been forecasting pink salmon harvests in SEAK for the past 5 years and are working to develop forecasting models for other salmon species. At the PSTF meeting in December 2008, ABL researchers forecasted a 44.4 million pink salmon harvest in SEAK for 2009 (http://www.afsc.noaa.gov/ABL/MSI/msi_sae_psf.htm).

The ABL pink salmon forecasts are based on ecosystem monitoring research conducted over the past 12 years under the Southeast Alaska Coastal Monitoring (SECM) project (http://www.afsc.noaa.gov/ABL/MSI/msi_secm.htm).

For the past 3 years, the Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADF&G) has also been using SECM data to refine their pink salmon forecast estimates for SEAK. A further continuation of SECM research over a longer time series will enable analysis of year-class variation for salmon species with more complicated and prolonged ocean life histories.

Some of these species have recently experienced declines. In 2008, for example, sockeye salmon, which generally spend two or three winters at sea, returned to SEAK in numbers reported to be the second lowest in nearly 50 years.

Until recently, the NOAA ship John N. Cobb served as the foundation of this ongoing SECM research. However, after 58 years of federal service as an Alaska research vessel, the Cobb was decommissioned in 2008. No specific plan or time schedule has been developed for a Cobb replacement vessel to date. Consequently, the continuation of this SECM research depends on availability of charter funds to replace the Cobb. Additionally, these charter funds would need to be in place in an adequate time frame to advertise for a prospective trawl vessel to bid and be contracted for this research by early summer 2009.

By Joe Orsi
 

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