Resource Ecology &
Fisheries Management

Age and Growth Task

From January to December 1997, members of the Age and Growth Task estimated the ages of 1,136 flathead sole, 817 rock sole, 569 rex sole, 285 Alaska plaice, 367 Dover sole, 267 northern rock sole, 117 southern rock sole, 1,184 yellowfin sole, 707 arrowtooth flounder, 12,263 walleye pollock, 1,195 sablefish, 891 Atka mackerel, 3,301 Pacific whiting, 269 Pacific ocean perch, 95 northern rockfish, and 73 light dusky rockfish, for a total of 23,536.  Also, 5,488 were tested, 2,731 were updated, and 195 were examined and determined to be unreadable.

By Dan Kimura.

  

Resource Ecology and Ecosystems Modeling

Stomach collections totalled 440 in the eastern Bering Sea and 2,262 in the Washington-Oregon-California slope region during October-December 1997.  Laboratory analysis was performed on 875 stomachs from the Bering Sea and 1,201 from the Gulf of Alaska and Aleutian Islands areas.

By Pat Livingston.

  

Status of Stocks and Multispecies Assessments

The Status of Stocks and Multispecies Assessments Program (SSMA) completed stock assessments for major groundfish stocks in the Bering Sea, Aleutian Islands region, and Gulf of Alaska.  Stock assessments utilize information from a variety of sources.  Survey biomass estimates were provided by the RACE Division, fishery catch data were obtained from the NMFS Alaska Region Office and REFM Observer Program, fishery biological data were collected by the Observer Program, and fishery and survey age composition data were provided by the REFM Age and Growth Task.  The assessments resulted in recommended levels of Acceptable Biological Catch (ABC) which were presented to the North Pacific Fishery Management Council (NPFMC).  Final ABC levels were set by the Council following the recommendations of its advisory committees.  Summaries of ABC recommendations are presented below, grouped by species and management area.

Scientists in the SSMA Program participated in preparing 8 of the 10 stock assessments for species or species groups in the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) and prepared stock assessments for 14 species or species groups in the eastern Bering Sea (EBS) and Aleutian Islands region.  The 1998 ABC values and projected 1998 biomass estimates are presented in summary Table 1 and Table 2 below, along with 1997 ABC values for comparison.

Table 1. Recommended acceptable biological catch (ABC) for 1997 and 1998, together with projected biomass for 1998, for groundfish in the Gulf of Alaska (GOA).  Figures are in metric tons.
Species	Area	ABC (1997)	ABC (1998)	Biomass
Walleye pollock	Western/Central	74,400	120,800	1,156,000
Walleye pollock	Eastern	5,580	11,000
Pacific cod	GOA	81,500	77,900	785,000
FLATFISH
Deep water flatfish	GOA	7,170	7,170	101,430
Rex sole	GOA	9,150	9,150	72,330
Shallow water flatfish	GOA	43,150	43,150	314,960
Flathead sole	GOA	26,110	26,110	206,340
Arrowtooth flounder	GOA	197,840	208,340	2,062,740
Sablefish	GOA	14,520	14,120	166,000
Slope Rockfish Complex
Pacific ocean perch	GOA	12,990	12,820	243,170
Shortraker/rougheye	GOA	1,590	1,590	65,380
Northern rockfish	GOA	5,000	5,000	83,870
Other slope rockfish	GOA	5,260	5,260	103,710
Pelagic shelf rockfish	GOA	5,140	5,260	55,580
Demersal shelf rockfish	GOA	950	560	25,031
Thornyheads	GOA	1,700	2,000	52,271
Atka mackerel	GOA	1,000	600	Unknown
Groundfish complex		493,050	550,830	5,493,812

1. Final ABC adopted by the North Pacific Fishery Management Council was 119,150.
2. Final ABC adopted by the North Pacific Fishery Management Council was 10,850.

 

Table 2. Recommended acceptable biological catch (ABC) for 1997 and 1998, together with projected biomass for 1998, for groundfish in the eastern Bering Sea (EBS), Aleutian Islands (AI), and Bogoslof district.  Figures are in metric tons.
Species	Area	ABC (1997)	ABC (1998)	Biomass
Walleye pollock	EBS	1,130,000	1,110,000	5,820
	AI	28,000	23,800	106,000
	Bogoslof	32,100	6,410	280,000
Pacific cod	BS-AI	306,000	210,000	1,340,000
Yellowfin sole	BS-AI	233,000	220,000	3,010,000
Greenland turbot	BS-AI	12,350	15,000	164,000
Rock sole	BS-AI	296,000	312,000	2,360,000
Flathead sole	BS-AI	101,000	132,000	824,000
Other flatfish	BS-AI	97,500	164,000	789,000
Sablefish	EBS	1,308	1,300	18,200
	AI	1,367	1,380	21,000
POP COMPLEX
True POP	EBS	2,800	1,400	41,300
Other red rockfish	EBS	1,050	267	11,600
True POP	AI	12,800	12,100	258,000
Sharp/Northern	AI	4,360	4,230	94,000
Short/Rougheye	AI	938	965	46,500
Other rockfish	EBS	373	369	7,030
	AI	714	685	13,000
Atka mackerel	BS-AI	66,700	64,300	536,000
Squid	BS-AI	1,970	1,970	na
Other species	BS-AI	25,800	25,800	669,000
Groundfish Complex		2,464,130	2,454,976	17,277,630

Walleye Pollock

• Gulf of Alaska:

The 1997 walleye pollock assessment featured a large amount of new data, including the results of the 1996 bottom trawl survey and the 1997 echo integration trawl (EIT) survey in Shelikof Strait. The 1997 EIT survey estimated a biomass of 570,100 metric tons (t), a decrease of 24% relative to the 1996 estimate.

Several varieties of statistical age-structured models (SAM) were presented.  Two synthesis models were presented: one with fixed natural mortality and the other that explicitly incorporated predation mortality.  An alternative model was constructed using a C++ software language extension and automatic differentiation library.  It is anticipated that future assessments will utilize the models developed using C++ and automatic differentiation libraries.  The main assessment model was based on the stock synthesis model with fixed natural mortality.  A sensitivity analysis was conducted in this assessment to explore the impact of a variety of assumptions regarding emphasis on age composition and length frequency data.  The stock synthesis model predicted the biomass in 1998 will be 1,171,000 t.  Pollock biomass is expected to increase in 1998 due to an incoming strong 1994 year class.  The ABC recommendation for the 1998 fishing season for walleye pollock was 120,800 t in the Western and Central Regulatory Areas and 11,000 t for the Eastern Regulatory Area. The recommended ABC fishing mortality rate was 0.341 and was based on new NPFMC harvest guidelines.  This rate was lower than F40% (0.355).   The recommended fishing mortality in 1998 is lower than F40% because the projected female spawner biomass in 1998 (255,400 t) was below the B40% level of 267,200 t.  The overfishing rate was 0.499 corresponding to a yield of 170,500 t. The overfishing rate for the eastern Gulf of Alaska was 15,600 t.

• Eastern Bering Sea:

This year’s walleye pollock assessment also featured a large amount of new data, including the results of recent bottom trawl and EIT surveys and several assessment models.  The 1997 bottom trawl survey estimated a biomass of 3,030,000 t, a decrease of 5% relative to the 1996 estimate, while the 1997 EIT survey estimated a biomass of 2,570,000 t, an increase of 11% relative to the 1996 estimate.  Among the models presented in the assessment were the two traditional cohort analyses that have served as the backbone of the pollock assessment for many years, plus six varieties of SAM, similar to the Bayesian alternative model described in the appendix to last year’s assessment.  Because models such as the six SAMs provide a more rigorous and explicit treatment of uncertainty in the data, it is anticipated that a model of this type will be adopted as the main analytic tool for future assessments of EBS pollock.  In choosing between the various model configurations presented in the assessment, the following factors were considered:  1) the EBS pollock stock is on a downward trend and is projected to continue downward for at least the next year; 2) the strength of the 1996 year class, which is presently estimated as being above average and which could be particularly important to any near-term change in the overall abundance trend, is still fairly uncertain owing to this cohort’s brief tenure in the population; and 3) given that most models projected a 1998 ABC close to or above the 1997 value, choosing a model that gave an ABC near the lower end of the range would maintain a stable level of harvests through the coming year, during which time further model development and evaluation can take place.

• Aleutian Islands:

This year’s bottom trawl survey of the Aleutian Islands region resulted in a biomass estimate of 106,000 t, an increase of 23% relative to the 1994 estimate.  The age-structured model that was initially developed for last year’s assessment was explored further in the present assessment.  Unfortunately, this exploration led the assessment authors to conclude that immigration of walleye pollock into the Aleutian Islands region from adjacent areas rendered the model unreliable for use in recommending ABC.

• Bogoslof District:

The 1997 EIT survey of the Bogoslof Island region resulted in a biomass estimate of 342,000 t for Area 518.  Next year’s biomass was estimated by using a natural mortality rate of 0.2 to decay the present year’s survey biomass estimate.  This procedure produced a projected 1998 biomass of 280,000 t.  Because this stock is so far below its target biomass level of 2.0 million t, the ABC was based on an extremely conservative fishing mortality rate, giving a 1998 value of 6,410 t.  There is currently a prohibition against directed fishing on this stock, which will be continued for the 1998 season.

Pacific Cod

• Gulf of Alaska:

This year’s assessment updated last year’s assessment, incorporating new catch and survey information.  The projected 1998 total age 3+ biomass was 785,000 t, down about 23% from last year’s projection for biomass in 1998 using a F40% exploitation strategy.  The 1998 ABC recommendation of 77,900 t was based on a risk-averse optimization procedure which considers uncertainty in the estimates of the survey catchability coefficient and the natural mortality rate in the computation of a target harvest level.

• Bering Sea:

This year’s assessment was a straightforward update of last year’s assessment, incorporating new catch and survey information.  This year’s EBS bottom trawl survey resulted in a biomass estimate of 605,000 t, a 32% decrease relative to last year’s estimate.  This year’s Aleutian bottom trawl survey resulted in a biomass estimate of 74,700 t, a 49% decrease relative to the 1994 estimate.  These declines are roughly consistent with the downward trend projected in last year’s assessment.  The 1998 ABC recommendation of 210,000 t was based on a risk-averse optimization procedure which considers uncertainty in the estimates of the survey catchability coefficient and the natural mortality rate in the computation of a target harvest level.

Flatfish

• Gulf of Alaska:

Revised catch estimates were provided in the 1997 stock assessment.  Revised catches were estimated from 1978 to 1996 by multiplying the group catch estimate (i.e., deep-water or shallow-water) by the estimate of the fraction of each species in the catch based on observer data.

ABC recommendations were unchanged from last year.  The 1996 triennial trawl survey biomass was used as current biomass for calculation of ABC (Table 1).  Rock sole ABC was estimated using F40%, calculated using the Bering Sea rock sole maturity schedule.  Greenland turbot and deep-sea sole ABC and overfishing level (OFL) were calculated using average catch because the survey does not sample deep water where these species occur. The ABCs for other flatfish except rock sole were estimated using F = 0.75 M.  Biomass estimates for Dover sole have a high degree of uncertainty due to the lack of deep-water samples in the survey from 1990 through 1996.

Arrowtooth Flounder

• Gulf of Alaska:

This year only minor changes were made to the GOA arrowtooth flounder assessment.  Catch for 1996 was updated, the 1996 fishery length composition was added to the model, and the length-based synthesis model was rerun using the same configuration as in the 1996 stock assessment and fishery evaluation (SAFE). Survey biomass estimates from halibut surveys in the 1960s, groundfish surveys in the 1970s, and NMFS triennial surveys from 1984 to 1996 were used in the model.  Selectivities were fixed to be asymptotic for the fishery and the survey.  When selectivities were estimated by the synthesis model, there was a reduction in selectivity for the largest females (60 cm), which resulted in an increase in population biomass of about 10% over the run with asymptotic selectivities.  The estimated biomass from the synthesis model increases from 310,000 t in the early 1970s to about 2,062,473 t in 1998.  The 1998 ABC using F40% was 208,337 t.  The OFL using F30% was 295,968 t.  The 1997 ABC using F40% was 197,840 t.

• Bering Sea:

This year’s assessment included several changes from last year’s assessment, incorporating new catch and survey information as well as changes in model structure and output.  This year’s EBS bottom trawl survey resulted in a biomass estimate of 479,000 t, a 14% decrease relative to last year’s estimate.  This year’s  bottom trawl survey of the AI  region resulted in a biomass estimate of 94,100 t, a 31% increase relative to the 1994 estimate.  In terms of model structure, this year’s assessment included an increased emphasis on fitting the time series of biomass estimates from the EBS bottom trawl survey, resulting in an overall increase in biomass estimated by the model.  In terms of model outputs, another change in this year’s assessment is that a target biomass level was estimated for the first time, with a value of 43,600 t.

Yellowfin Sole

• Bering Sea:

For the most part, this year’s assessment was a straightforward update of last year’s assessment, incorporating new catch and survey information.  This year’s EBS bottom trawl survey resulted in a biomass estimate of 2,160,000 t, a 6% decrease relative to last year’s estimate.  In terms of model outputs, one change in this year’s assessment is that a target biomass level was estimated for the first time, with a value of 593,000 t.

Greenland Turbot

• Bering Sea:

This year’s assessment included several changes from last year’s assessment, incorporating new catch and survey information as well as changes in other model inputs and model structure.  This year’s bottom trawl survey of the AI region resulted in a biomass estimate of 29,200 t, a 4% decrease relative to last year’s estimate (the majority of Greenland turbot biomass occurs on the slope, however).  This year’s bottom trawl survey of the Aleutian Islands region resulted in a biomass estimate of 32,000 t, a 10% increase relative to the 1994 estimate.  Two changes in the models themselves were the use of a corrected weight-length relationship and the elimination of alternative model configurations corresponding to different projected catch distributions by gear type.

Rock Sole

• Bering Sea:

For the most part, this year’s assessment was a straightforward update of last year’s assessment, incorporating new catch and survey information.  This year’s EBS bottom trawl survey resulted in a biomass estimate of 2,710,000 t, a 24% increase relative to last year’s estimate.  This year’s bottom trawl survey of the AI region resulted in a biomass estimate of 56,200 t, a 31% increase relative to the 1994 estimate.  In terms of model outputs, one change in this year’s assessment is that a target biomass level was estimated for the first time, with a value of 267,000 t.

Flathead Sole

• Bering Sea:

This year’s assessment included several changes from last year’s assessment, incorporating new catch and survey information as well as presenting a preliminary length-structured model for initial review.  This year’s EBS bottom trawl survey resulted in a biomass estimate of 808,000 t, a 31% increase relative to last year’s estimate.  This year’s bottom trawl survey of the AI region resulted in a biomass estimate of 16,200 t, a 5% increase relative to the 1994 estimate.

“Other Flatfish” Complex

• Bering Sea:

This year’s assessment included several changes from last year’s assessment, incorporating new catch and survey information as well as changes in model structure and output.  This year’s EBS bottom trawl survey resulted in biomass estimates of 643,000 t for Alaska plaice and 70,300 t for the remaining members of the “other flatfish” complex, representing respective increases of 22% and 17% relative to last year’s estimates.  This year’s bottom trawl survey of the AI  region resulted in a complex-wide biomass estimate of 9,500 t, a 42% increase relative to the 1994 estimate. Another change in model inputs (Alaska plaice only) involved removal of the proxy age compositions that had formerly been used for the years in which no age data were available.  In terms of model structure (Alaska plaice only), this year’s assessment included an increased emphasis on fitting the time series of biomass estimates from the EBS bottom trawl survey and a change in the natural mortality rate from 0.20 to 0.25.  The net effect of all of the above changes was an increase in biomass estimated by the model.  In terms of model outputs, another change in the present assessment (Alaska plaice only) is that a target biomass level was estimated for the first time, with a value of 112,000 t.

Sablefish

• GOA and Bering Sea:

The sablefish assessment was conducted by scientists at the Auke Bay Laboratory and the SSMA program.  Sablefish in the eastern Bering Sea, Aleutian Islands region, and Gulf of Alaska are assessed jointly.  Relative to last year, the following substantive changes were made to the sablefish chapter.

Relative abundance and length data from the 1997 sablefish longline survey of the eastern Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska were incorporated into the model.  The overall abundance index decreased 6.2% in numbers and 12.1% in weight from 1996 to 1997 following a decrease of 0.3% in numbers and an increase of 8.8% in weight from 1995 to 1996.  The catch rate around 50-53 cm fork length was greater than usual, representing the 1995 year class. Fishery length frequencies from 1990 to 1996 were incorporated into the model.  Survey and fishery length frequencies are similar.

Projected 1998 exploitable biomass is 207,000 t, spawning biomass 189,000 t.  Projected spawning biomass is 0.34 of the unfished level.  The population is decreasing from a peak in the mid-1980s.  The peak is attributed to strong recruitment in the late 1970s; recruitment levels have decreased in recent years.

The combined area stock yield is estimated at 19,000 t using the adjusted F40% fishing rate (Tier 3b).  If recent low recruitment levels continue, the population is projected to continue to decrease, and the adjustable F40% strategy will result in yields of 13,700 t within 10 years.  The yield from an adjusted F40% strategy was an increase over last year’s ABC.  Assessment authors noted that increasing ABC was inconsistent with a population that appears to be decreasing and below target levels. Rather than increase the ABC in 1998, then reduce thereafter toward the predicted short-term equilibrium, assessment authors recommended that ABC be incrementally adjusted toward the short-term equilibrium yield.   Using 3-year increments, results in an equilibrium adjusted value of 16,000 t which was the recommended ABC for the combined stock.  This strategy was used for the 1997 ABC and total allowable catch (TAC).

A 5-year exponential weighting of regional relative population weights was used to apportion the combined ABC to regions, resulting in the following apportionment: Bering Sea 1,237 t, Aleutian Islands 1,312 t and Gulf of Alaska 13,450 t, which is further apportioned Western 1,750 t, Central 6,024 t, W. Yakutat 2,180 t, E. Yakutat/Southeast 3,496 t.

Pacific Ocean Perch (POP) Complex

• True POP, Eastern Bering Sea:

This year’s assessment included several changes from last year’s assessment, incorporating new catch information as well as changes in other model inputs and model structure.  In terms of model inputs, one change was the replacement of the time series of EBS trawl survey (slope and shelf combined) biomass estimates with a single average value.  In terms of model structure, this year’s assessment included a decreased emphasis on fitting the biomass estimate from the EBS trawl survey and a decreased emphasis on fitting the fishery size composition data.  The net effect of all the above changes was a decrease in biomass estimated by the model.

• True POP, Aleutian Islands:

This year’s assessment included several changes from last year’s assessment, incorporating new catch and survey information as well as changes in model structure.  This year’s bottom trawl survey of the Aleutian Islands area resulted in a biomass estimate of 714,000 t, a 69% increase relative to the 1994 estimate.  In terms of model structure, this year’s assessment included a decreased emphasis on fitting the biomass estimate from the Aleutian bottom trawl survey, a decreased emphasis on fitting the fishery size composition data, and a new estimate of trawl survey catchability.  The net effect of all the above changes was a decrease in biomass estimated by the model.

• Other Members of the POP Complex, Eastern Bering Sea:

With one significant exception, this year’s assessment was a straightforward update of last year’s assessment, incorporating new catch data and survey data.  This year’s bottom trawl survey of the Aleutian Islands area provided estimates of biomass in the small part of the EBS covered by that survey.  Traditionally, the biomass estimates from all trawl surveys (both EBS shelf/slope and Aleutian Islands) have been averaged over all years to obtain the best estimate of biomass for the species in this subcomplex. However, because a single tow from the 1986 Aleutian survey accounts for approximately 94% of the estimate of EBS northern rockfish biomass obtained under this method, the 1986 survey datum was omitted from this year’s calculation, resulting in large reductions in both the overall biomass estimate and the 1998 ABC for the subcomplex.

• Northern and Sharpchin Rockfish, Aleutian Islands:

This year’s assessment was a straightforward update of last year’s assessment, incorporating new catch and survey data.  Because sharpchin rockfish are found only rarely in the Aleutian Islands region, northern rockfish are for all practical purposes the only species in this subcomplex.  Traditionally, the biomass estimates from all Aleutian bottom trawl surveys have been averaged over all years to obtain the best estimate of northern rockfish biomass.  This procedure produces a biomass estimate of 94,000 t, down 3% from last year’s estimate.

• Shortraker and Rougheye Rockfish, Aleutian Islands:

This year’s assessment was a straightforward update of last year’s assessment, incorporating new catch data and survey data. Traditionally, the biomass estimates from all bottom trawl surveys in the Aleutian Islands region have been averaged over all years to obtain the best estimate of biomass for the species in this subcomplex. Summed over the species in the subcomplex, this procedure produces a biomass estimate of 46,500 t, up 2% from last year’s estimate.  By species, the biomass estimates are as follows:  rougheye rockfish—21,600 t and shortraker rockfish—24,900 t.

Other Rockfish Complex

• Bering Sea:

This year’s assessment was a straightforward update of last year’s assessment, incorporating new catch data and survey data.  Traditionally, the biomass estimates (split according to management area) from all bottom trawl surveys (EBS shelf/slope and Al\I region) have been averaged over all years to obtain the best estimates of biomass for the species in this complex.  Summed over the species in the complex, this procedure produces a biomass estimate of 7,030 t in the EBS, down 1% from last year’s estimate, and a biomass estimate of 13,000 t in the AI region, down 4% from last year’s estimate.  The great majority of this biomass is comprised of thornyhead rockfish.

Slope Rockfish Complex

• Gulf of Alaska:

The GOA slope rockfish assessment was conducted by scientists at the ABL and the SSMA program.  This year’s assessment included several changes from last year’s assessment; new catch and survey information were incorporated into the model and the model structure was changed.  A new version of the stock synthesis program with better estimation properties was used to model Pacific ocean perch.  Stock assessment authors selected a model that included estimation of trawl survey catchability as the basis for ABC and OFL recommendations.  This model fit the data the best and was consistent with the desire to remain conservative.

Shortspine Thornyheads

• Gulf of Alaska:

A revised assessment was presented this year using slightly different model assumptions and some revised data.  Selectivity was modeled as a function of age rather than size.  Individual selectivity-at-age parameters were estimated instead of assuming a functional form.  Estimates of variances were supplied for key parameters, including the harvests under different spawning pre-recruit rates.  A fixed length-age relationship was used in the revised model.  Trawl survey catchability was allowed to change from a value of 1.0 during the years when the survey included the deeper waters to an estimated value in recent years when only the shallow water segment of the population was surveyed.  Natural mortality was treated as a free parameter with an informative prior distribution.  An explicit consideration of future catch by gear type was included.  The 1998 ABC recommendation for shortspine thornyheads in the GOA is 2,000 t based on the F40%  rate, an 11% increase over last year’s recommendation.

Atka Mackerel

• Gulf of Alaska:

The 1998 GOA Atka mackerel assessment provided updated catch data.  As in last year’s assessment no reliable estimate of current stock biomass was available.  The recommended ABC for Atka mackerel in the GOA was 600 t, enough to satisfy only the anticipated bycatch needs of other trawl fisheries, principally those for Pacific cod, rockfish, and pollock.

• Bering Sea:

For the most part, this year’s assessment was a straightforward update of last year’s assessment, incorporating new catch and survey information.  This year’s bottom trawl survey of the Aleutian Islands region resulted in a biomass estimate of 348,000 t, a 44% decrease relative to the 1994 estimate.  Another change in model inputs consisted of the use of revised weight-at-age vectors.  The ABC for 1998 was set well below the maximum allowable level for a number of reasons, including  an overall downward trend in stock size since 1991, the particularly large decrease in survey biomass between 1994 and 1997, and the existence of local harvest rates that have sometimes been three to five times greater than the Aleutian-wide harvest rate.

Squid and “Other Species” Complex

• Squid: Bering Sea

This year’s squid assessment was a straightforward update of last year’s assessment, incorporating new catch information only.

• “Other Species” Complex: Bering Sea

This year’s “other species” assessment was also a straightforward update of last year’s assessment, incorporating new catch and survey information.  This year’s EBS bottom trawl survey resulted in a biomass estimate of 619,000 t, virtually unchanged from last year’s estimate.  This year’s bottom trawl survey of the Aleutian Islands region resulted in a biomass estimate of 48,700 t, a 3% decrease relative to the 1994 estimate.

By Anne Hollowed and Grant Thompson.


Crab Research

Crab catch projections were developed from survey and commercial catch data for red king crabs, Tanner crabs (Chionoecetes bairdi,) and snow crab (C. opilio) stocks. The analysis indicates that Bristol Bay red king crab stock will remain at depressed levels nearer term, with catches expected in the 5-15 million lb pound range through the 1999 season, increasing to the 10-30 million lb range for the 2000 season.  Catches of Tanner crab are expected to remain very depressed, within the 0-5 million lb range through the 2000 season.  Snow crab catches for the 1999 season are expected to be within the 150-250 million lb range.  Catches are then expected to drop to the 100-200 million lb range for the 2000 season, and further to the 50-100 million lb range for the 2001 season.

By Jerry Reeves.

U.S. Groundfish Observer Program

During the fourth quarter, 92 observers were trained, briefed, and equipped for deployment to fishing and processing vessels and shoreside plants in the Gulf of Alaska, Bering Sea, and Aleutian Islands region.  They sampled aboard 121 fishing and processing vessels and at seven shoreside processing plants.  These observers were trained or briefed in various locations.  The AFSC Observer Program in Seattle trained 24 first-time observers, and another 6 observers with prior experience were briefed at the site.  The University of Alaska Anchorage (UAA) Observer Training Center briefed 21 observers and trained 29. At the Observer Program’s field offices in Dutch Harbor and Kodiak, Alaska, seven more observers were briefed and five were excused from briefing because they had just completed a cruise successfully and were returning immediately to the field.  The fourth quarter 1997 observer workforce, thus, comprised 58% new observers and 42% experienced observers.

The Observer Program conducted a total of 172 debriefings during the fourth quarter of 1997.  Eight debriefings were held in Kodiak, 14 in Dutch Harbor, and 150 in Seattle.

The total statistics for 1997 are as follows:

• Observers trained or briefed at AFSC = 214
• Observers trained or briefed at UAA = 257
• Observers briefed in Kodiak = 8
• Observers briefed in Dutch Harbor = 26
• Observers excused from briefing = 30
• Total observers = 535
• Individual vessels covered by observers = 353
• Individual plants covered by observers = 20
• Percent of observers with prior experience = 65%.

At its December 1997 meeting, the NPFMC requested that NMFS continue working on a joint partnership agreement with the Pacific States Marine Fisheries Commission (PSMFC) to provide observer procurement services.  Under this modified pay-as-you-go Observer Program, the PSMFC would act as an interface between observer companies and vessels or shoreside plants required to carry observers.  This would resolve some conflict of interest issues, allow for potential increases in observer compensation, and address concerns regarding supervision of observer companies.  The proposed rule for this program will be published soon in the Federal Register.  Following a public comment period, the Council will review the proposed rule at its February 1998 meeting and vote again on whether to request NMFS to proceed with preparing a final rule for the program.  The current Interim Observer Program will continue through 1998 with minor changes.

Also, at its December 1997 meeting, the Council requested that NMFS begin work again on a fee-based observer procurement system (previously referred to as the “Research Plan”).  Under this system, which is authorized in the Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act, vessels and processors participating in halibut, crab, and groundfish fisheries in the Exclusive Economic Zone off Alaska would pay up to 2% of the landed value of their catch.  This money would be used to procure and deploy observers consistent with coverage requirements. NMFS was requested by the Council to begin work on this program immediately and to implement the fee collection portion of the program by the year 2000.  In addition, the Council asked NMFS to prepare a workshop on data collection, estimation, and observer coverage needs which will be held in conjunction with the Council’s April 1998 meeting.

The final rule implementing the Council’s expanded Community Development Quota (CDQ) program should be published early in 1998, but a date for implementation of the program has not been established.  Under this program, 7.5% of all allocated groundfish species (together with proportional prohibited species limits) will be made available to CDQ groups.  This program will require additional observer coverage and some changes in observer duties.  As is the case with the current walleye pollock CDQ program, most expanded CDQ vessels will carry two observers. The Observer Program will establish qualifications and training requirements for these observers early in 1998.

Electronic reporting of observer sampling data from sea is now occurring on about 45 vessels and will be further implemented to cover all fisheries by the end of 1998.  This will provide the Observer Program with an improved ability to solve problems which observers encounter at sea and will streamline the debriefing process.

By Bob Maier.

 

Socioeconomic Assessment Task

During the past quarter, the Task has been heavily involved in activities in support of the NPFMC and Pacific Fishery Management Council (PFMC), the implementation of the Magnuson-Stevens Act, and other cooperative efforts within the Agency and beyond.

• Council Activities

1. Vessel Bycatch Account Program:  The vessel bycatch account (VBA) committee met in November to further develop details of a VBA program for Council consideration.  With assistance from the NOAA General Counsel’s Office, the committee discussed four priority legal issues:

1. the meaning of the Magnuson-Stevens Act prohibition on “transfers for monetary compensation”

2. the applicability of the Magnuson-Stevens Act mandated individual fishing quota (IFQ) cost recovery program to a VBA program

3. the effects of VBA vessel pools on the cost of monitoring and enforcing a VBA program

4. the meaning of the Magnuson-Stevens Act requirement that a VBA program result in an ”actual reduction in regulatory discards."

The committee also discussed the observer coverage requirements for a VBA program and the potential for the need to change the observer program from a science-based program to a compliance-based program to support a VBA program.  A subcommittee will address observer and monitoring issues.  The committee developed recommendations concerning the initial allocation of VBAs, the extent to which the allocation and use of VBAs would be gear-specific, the annual allocation of VBAs, and a pilot program.  The committee discussed the option of setting a minimum VBA threshold for participation in the default VBA pool and appointed a committee to develop recommendations concerning such a threshold.

2. Inshore, Offshore, and Community Development Quota (CDQ) Allocation III:  In September, the Council developed separate problem statements for the BSAI and GOA, developed a suite of Inshore/Offshore allocation alternatives, and decided to address the BSAI pollock CDQs in a separate amendment.  An analytical team was established to conduct the analysis of the alternatives developed by the Council.  The team includes Council, NMFS, and state of Alaska staff.

3. Other NPFMC Activities: Staff attended the NPFMC GOA Plan Team meetings for the final review of stock assessments and prepared a report on the economic status of the BSAI and GOA groundfish fisheries which is part of the SAFE report.

4. PFMC Groundfish Management:  Activities in support of PFMC groundfish management included the following:  1) presenting projections for landings in the fixed-gear sablefish daily-limit fisheries and  discussing management options for all trip-limit species in 1998 at the November Council meeting; 2) participating in an associated meeting of the Groundfish Management Team (GMT), which focussed on inseason projections and recommended management measures for 1998; and 3) assisting in presenting the GMT recommendations for quotas to the scientific steering committee and the Council.

• Magnuson-Stevens Act Implementation Activities

Contributions to the Magnuson-Stevens Act implementation activities included:  1) preparing extensive review comments on the final draft of the NMFS bycatch plan; 2) participating in the review and revision of the guidelines for the national standards; and 3) assisting the Alaska Region in preparing information for the National Research Council (NRC) review of IFQ programs.  The Task presented a report to the NRC committee reviewing IFQ programs and was asked to provide additional information on options to decrease the windfall gains resulting from an IFQ program without substantially decreasing the net benefit of such a program to the Nation.

• Other Cooperative Activities

Work continued under a cooperative effort by the Center, the NPFMC, the PSMFC, the NMFS Office of Science and Technology, and economists at the University of California to develop data and models to estimate the economic performance of the Alaska groundfish fisheries.

By Joe Terry.